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股价连涨不休:苹果还能再涨50%吗?

2020年1月13日 16:42  热点微评  作 者:王新喜

DOUSHUO2019NIANSHIGUOQUSHINIANZHONGZUIJIANNANDEYINIAN,DANSHI2019NIANQUESHIPINGGUOJIN10NIANLAIBIAOXIANZUIHAODEYINIAN,2019NIANPINGGUOGUJIAYIZHIZAIBUDUANSHANGZHANG,NIANZHANGFUCHAOGUO100%,GUJIAZHANGLECHAOGUO5300YIMEIJIN,ZUZUZHANGLEYIGEALI。MUQIANPINGGUOZONGSHIZHIDADAOLE1.36WANYIMEIJIN。

CONGZUIJINPINGGUODEGUJIAZOUSHILAIKAN,PINGGUODEZHANGSHIHAIMEIYOUTINGZHI,SHENZHIQIANHUAERJIEKEJIFENXIJIEN·MENGSITE(Gene Munster)RENWEIPINGGUOHAINENGZAIZHANG50%。

过去多年,苹果的股价一直处于价值洼地

YAOKANPINGGUODEGUJIAZHANGFU,SHOUXIANYAOCONGSHIYINGLVLAIKAN。QISHIPINGGUOGUJIAZHEINIANLAIDEFENGKUANGSHANGZHANG,NEIZAIYUANYINSHIZAIGUOQUDUONIANBEIDIGU,CONG2016NIAN,PINGGUOGUJIAQISHIJIUYIJINGXINGCHENGLEJIAZHIWADI,2019NIANCHUYUJIAZHISHIFANGJIEDUAN。

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理论上,股票的市盈率愈低,表示该股票的投资风险越小。市盈率过高说明其营收增长超过了预期,并且投资者看好其未来增长前景。

XUDUOCHUANTONGKEJIQIYETONGCHANGSHIYINGLVJIGAO,TAMENGAOANGDEGUJIAKAOWEILAICHENGZHANGLVZHICHI,ZHEIKEYIKANZUOSHISHICHANGDUIYUGONGSIFAZHANQIANJINGDELEGUANCHENGDU。RUGUOYIJIAGONGSIDESHIYINGLVHENGAO,JIUYIWEIZHEHOUXUXUYAOCHIXUDEYINGLIZENGZHANGYIZHICHENGQIGAOSHIYINGLV。

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市盈率过低,一方面说明资本市场看衰其未来成长性前景,但一方面也有可能意味着股价被低估。苹果与谷歌facebook相比,苹果在过去多年市盈率低的过于明显了,其股价存在远低于其内在价值的可能性。

JUFactSetSHUJUXIANSHI,PINGGUO2019NIANNIANCHUDESHIYINGLVLVEGAOYU13,DIYUQIWUNIANPINGJUNZHIYUE16,MUQIANYIDADAO24.5。CIWAI,GAIGONGSIDEYUANQISHIYINGLVLVEDIYU22DIAN,YEDADAOLISHIZUIGAOSHUIPING。

JINGUANRUCI,PINGGUODANGQIANDESHIYINGLVXIANGBIGUIGUQITADAXINGKEJIJUTOUERYAN,(WEIRUAN、GUGEHEFacebookDESHIYINGLVJUNZAI29BEIZHI35BEIZHIJIAN,YAMAXUNJINNIANDESHIYINGLVGAOYU80),PINGGUODESHIYINGLVPAIMINGZUIDI,YIRANBUSUANGAO。

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资本市场看到了苹果打造新爆款的潜质

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WEIHEYAOSHUOAirPodsDUITUIDONGPINGGUODESHIZHIJUGONGZHIWEINI?

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但苹果在硬件层面也打破了资本市场的预期,它证明了苹果是可以在iPhone之外拿出新的爆款,来拉动营收增长的。它相当于向资本市场的宣告,即便苹果是一家硬件公司,依然可以不断丰富产品线,通过新的爆款拉动营收来缓解市场瓶颈到来时的营收下滑阵痛。

但其实苹果给资本市场证明的不是它未来在AirPods上的营收增长还将达到什么样的高度,苹果证明了它可以在第一条曲线iPhone的增长到达巅峰之前,通过新的硬件产品布局找到第二曲线增长的能力。

YINWEIZAIAirPodsZHIWAI,PINGGUOYIRANHAIYOUNENGLIZAIQITALINGYUNACHUXINDECHANPIN,DAZAOXINDEBAOKUAN,BIRUSHUO,SHIDAI,PINGGUOYIGEKENENGXINGSHITUICHUARYANJINGDENGCHANPIN。CONGPINGGUOGUOQUDUONIANDUIARYANJINGDETOURUCHENGDUYUZHONGSHICHENGDULAIKAN,TAJUBEICHENGWEIWEILAIXINYIDAIDEBAOKUANDEKENENGXING。

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股价上涨背后,印度市场或迎来转机

LINGYIGEZHIDEGUANZHUDEBIANHUASHIYINDUSHICHANG。GUOQUPINGGUOZAIYINDUSHICHANGDESHICHANGFENEJIBENKEYIHULVEBUJI,DANPINGGUOQUNIANZAIYINDUZHENDUIiPhone、MacHEQITAKECHUANDAICHANPINDEJIANGJIA,SHOUHUOLEYIDINGCHENGXIAO,SHUJUXIANSHIZAIQUNIANDEDISANJIDU,PINGGUONAXIALEYINDUGAODUANSHOUJISHICHANG51.3%DEFENE。

PINGGUOZAIYINDUSHICHANGHUIBUHUIYINGLAIZHUANJI?

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印度监管政策变化一方面可能会鼓励苹果公司在该国开设门店,另一方面可能会降低苹果在印度的运营成本,苹果在印度市场有更多动力通过降价来换取市场份额。

ZAIZIBENSHICHANGKANLAI,PINGGUOTUICHUDEDIJIASHEBEIYEJIANGYOUZHUYUPINGGUOZAIYINDUSHICHANGDEYUNYING。PINGGUORUGUONENGDAKAIYINDUSHICHANGDEKOUZI,DUIPINGGUODEXIAOLIANGLADONGZUOYONGFEITONGXIAOKE,BIJINGYINDUDEZHONGGAODUANZHINENGSHOUJIZENGZHANGKONGJIANYIRANKEQI。

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上涨50%或许过于乐观了

DANGRAN,FENXISHIYUCEPINGGUOGUJIAHAIJIANGCHIXUBIAOZHANG,ZHANGFUHAIJIANGCHAOGUO50%,ZHEIYUDANGXIADEiPhoneDEXIAOLIANGBIAOXIANYU5GSHIDAIZIBENSHICHANGDUIPINGGUOXINPINJIYULEJUDADEYUQIYEMIBUKEFEN。

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PINGGUODEZHANGFUSHIFOUHAIJIANGCHAOGUO50%?BIZHERENWEIZHEIYAOKANPINGGUO2020NIAN5GBANiPhoneDEBIAOXIAN。ZHONGSUOZHOUZHI2020NIANSHIPINGGUODE5GQUDONGZHOUQIYUDANIAN,ZAIPEIBEI5GZHIWAI,ZAOQIANDEBAOLIAOXIAOXICHENGPINGGUOZAIWAIGUANSHANGYOUDAGAI,SHENZHIZHANGQIYILAIBEITUCAODELIUHAIYEYAOBEIQUDIAO。

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2020NIANSHIGUANJIANDEYINIAN,ZIBENSHICHANGTUIGAOPINGGUODEGUJIA,ZIRANDUIiPhoneDE5GBANSHICHANGBIAOXIANCUNZAIJUDAXIAOLIANGYUQI。GENJUDIAOYANJIGOUCounterpointYUCE,2020NIAN,ZHONGGUOSHICHANG5GSHOUJICHANPINYUJIJIANGTUPO100KUAN,5GSHOUJIZAIZHONGGUOSHICHANGDECHUHUOLIANGJIANGTUPO1.5YITAI。YICHANGLITUISUAN,5GDEDAOLAIWUYIJIANGSHIDEiPhoneDEXIAOLIANGYOUXINYILUNDEFEIYUE。

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在国内市场,在华为5G集成芯片之外,联发科也已经推出了5G集成芯片——天玑1000拿出了5G双模、双载波聚合、5G+5G双卡双待的5G芯片,市场竞争力相对过去4G时代也上涨了一个台阶。而告别英特之后,有高通加持苹果的5G版iPhone能否具备足够的产品性能、网络表现与价格竞争力依然要打上一个问号。

我们需要看到,iPhone2019年的表现背后,是苹果通过持续降价来稳定iPhone的销量,而5G版iPhone由于无论在芯片还是材质以及各种元器件成本大涨,5G版iPhone很难维持iPhone11的定价,或将再次失去性价比优势。

CIWAISHIDANGQIANiPhone11XILIEDAMAIYIJINGXIAOHUALETAIDUODECUNLIANGYONGHU,MOUZHONGCHENGDUSHANGSHITIQIANTOUZHIBINGQIANGDUOLE5GBANiPhoneDEHUANJIYONGHU。ZHEIDUIPINGGUOERYANHUOXUBINGBUSHIYIGEHAOXIAOXI。

简而言之,苹果的市盈率不能简单类比谷歌Facebook亚马逊等科技公司,后者是成长型企业,这些科技巨头的互联网服务业务模式与B端企业级营收模式一旦成型,具备一定的稳定增长性预期表现,波动性较小。而苹果的硬件销量涨跌有其周期性,波动性较大,而硬件销量的波动性与其股价涨跌息息相关。

FUBUSIRIQIANYIPIANWENZHANGDEGUANDIANRENWEI:PANDUANPINGGUOGUJIANENGFOUSHIXIANHELIZENGZHANGDEYIGEFANGFASHIJISUANQIPEGBILV,JISHIYINGLVCHUYIZHANGQISHOUYIZENGZHANGLV。RUGUOYIJIAGONGSIDEPEGZAI1.0HUOYIXIA,TAJIUWEITOUZIZHETIGONGLEYIGEYIHELIJIAGEMAIRUCHENGZHANGXINGGUPIAODEJIHUI。ANZHAOZHEIZHONGLUOJI,PINGGUOGUPIAODEJIAZHIBEIGAOGULE,YINWEITADEPEGDADAOLE2.5。

不过PEG估值计算它的核心是预测企业未来三五年的盈利增长率,但放到苹果身上,可能还需要考虑其账面上的净现金和产生大量自由现金流的能力以及打造新爆款的能力。

ZAIXINBAOKUANDEYINGLIZENGZHANGLVSHANG,RUQIANSUOSHU,ZAIAirPodsZHIWAI,JUWAIMEIThe InformationBAODAO,PINGGUOYUJIZAI2022NIANTUICHUDIYIKUANTOUDAISHISHEBEI,2023NIANTUICHUTIJIGENGXIAO、KEZHANGSHIJIANPEIDAIDEARZHINENGYANJING。

YINCI,ZONGTIERYAN,PINGGUODANGQIANDEGUJIADUIYINGDAODANGXIAPINGGUODESHICHANGBIAOXIAN,KENENGYIRANSHICHUYUHELISHAOYOUPIANGAODESHICHANGJIAWEI,DANPINGGUODEWEILAIYIRANMIANLINZHUDUOBUQUEDINGXING,RUGUOSHUOTAHAIJIANGZENGZHANG50%,SHENZHIYUCETAMINGNIANJIUJIANGSHIXIANGAIGUJIAZHANGFU,KENENGSHIGUOYULEGUANLE。

编 辑:章芳
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