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PayPal入华,外来和尚难念经

2019年10月23日 09:13  创事记  

MEIGUOZHIFUJUTOUPayPalQUXIANRUHUA,YOURUBANJIEDEHUMIANZHONGTOURUYIKUAIDASHI,MEIGERENDOUGUANXIN,ZHEIKUAISHITOUNENGFOUZACHUYIDAOLIEHEN,HANDONGGUONEIZHIFUGEJU。

PayPalBUJINSHIMEIGUOZHIFUJUTOU,YESHIGUOJIZHIFUJUTOU,MUQIANYIKAITUOQUANQIU200DUOGESHICHANG,MEIGUOYIWAIDESHICHANGGONGXIANLE43%DEJIAOYILIANGHE54%DEJINGSHOURU(2018NIANSHUJU)。

GUONEIDEZHIFUJIGOUCHABUDUOZHANGYIGEYANG,PayPalXIANRANYUZHIBUTONG,GUOJIHUACHENGDUGENGSHIRANGGUONEIZHIFUJIGOUWANGCHENMOJI。ZHENGYINWEIZHEIYANG,PayPalRUHUACAIHUIJIRENXIANGXIANGKONGJIAN。WENTISHI,WAILAIDEHESHANGNENGNIANHAOGUONEIDEJINGMA?

PayPal是谁?

HENDUORENRENSHIPayPal,SHICONGZHIFUBAOKAISHIDE。SHICHANGPUBIANRENWEI,ZHIFUBAOYUPayPalZHIJIAN,YOUYIDUANQINGCHUYULANDEGUSHI。

PayPalCHENGLIYU1998NIAN,2002NIANBEIebayBINGGOU,CHENGWEIebayMAIMAISHUANGFANGDEJIAOYIGONGJU;2003NIAN,TAOBAOSHANGXIANZHIFUBAO,WEIMAIMAISHUANGFANGTIGONGDANBAOJIAOYI。CONGXIANHOUCIXUKAN,ZHIFUBAODELINGGANLAIZIYUPayPal。

ZUICHUDEJINIAN,ZHIFUBAOYUPayPalJIUXIANGLIANGTIAOPINGXINGXIAN,ZAIBUTONGDESHICHANGZUOZHEXIANGSIDESHIQING,RUCONGZHIFUGONGJUYANBIANCHENGZHIFUQIANBAO,ZAIYANSHENGCHUXINYONGZHIFU(DAIKUAN)CHANPIN。2014NIAN,ERZHEKAISHIZAIZHANLVECENGMIANCHUXIANZHONGDACHAYI——ZHEIYINIAN,MAYIJINFUCHENGLI,QUANMIANZHUANXIANGZONGHEXINGJINRONGFUWUJITUAN;ERPayPalZEYUNNIANGYUebayCHAIFEN,MOUQIUDULISHANGSHI。

ZHIHOUDEYINIANLI,LIANGZHEFENBIEWANCHENGLEGEZIDEDADONGZUO,ZHIFUBAOZAICIZHANLVESHENGJI,CONGJINRONGFUWUPINGTAIZHUANXINGZHUANXINGSHENGHUOFUWUPINGTAI;PayPalZERUYUANSHANGSHI,KAISHIZAIHUAERJIEDEZHIHUIBANGXIAWEIGUIMOHEYINGSHOUBENPAO。

SANNIANHOU,ERZHEYIJUERANBUTONG。ZHIFUBAOBIANSHENYIZHANSHISHENGHUOFUWUPINGTAI,ERPayPalRENGSHIYIJIAZHIFUJIGOU,ZHIFUYINGSHOUGONGXIANZHANBIGAODA89%。

NEIME,JINJIUZHIFUYEWUBENSHENLAIKAN,PayPalDEBIAOXIANJIUJINGRUHENI?

(1)交易规模

PayPalSHIGUOJIZHIFUJUTOU,DANYUGUONEIZHIFUJIGOUBIGUIMO,YEZHISHIERXIANSHUIPING。2018NIAN,PayPalZAIQUANQIUGONGJISHIXIANJIAOYILIANG5087YIMEIYUAN(BUHANWANGGUANZHIFU),ZHEHERENMINBI4WANYIYUAN,FANGZAIZHONGGUOSHICHANG(2018NIANGUONEIFEIYINXINGZHIFUJIAOYIGUIMO208WANYIYUAN),ZHANBIBUZU2%。

CONGZENGZHANGQUSHIKAN,2013NIANYILAI,PayPalJIAOYIGUIMONIANJUNZENGSUZAI20%-30%ZHIJIAN,YUTONGQIGUONEIZHIFUJIGOUDONGZHESHANGBAIDEZENGSUBI,ZHINENGSHUOCHAQIANGRENYI。

(2)盈利能力

JIAOYIGUIMOSUIBUZHANYOUSHI,DANPayPalDEYINGLINENGLIJUEDUIXIANSHAPANGREN。2018NIAN,PayPalSHIXIANJINGLIRUN20.57YIMEIYUAN,ZHEHERENMINBI141YIYUAN。XIANGBIZHIXIA,GUONEIZHIFUJIGOUKUNYUYINGLINANDEJIANGJU,BUDEBUWEISANDOUMIZHEYAO,GEBIEJIGOUSHENZHIBUXITINGERZOUXIAN,WEIGUIJINGYINGYIZHIFADANBUDUAN。JIBIANSHIJIGEJUTOU,YESHITONGGUO“DAIKUANBUTIEZHIFU”SHIXIANSHANGYECENGMIANDEKECHIXUXING。

PayPalDEYINGLI,QUJUEYUQIYUANGAOYUGUONEITONGYEDESHOUFEIBIAOZHUN。YIMEIYUANRUZHANGWEILI,PayPalDEZHIFUFEILVYIBANZAIJIAOYIE3.4%YISHANG(SHISHANGJIAJIAOYIECHAYIHUADINGJIA,ZUIGAOKESHENGZHI4.4%),QIEXUZHIFU0.3MEIYUAN/BIDEGUDINGFEIYONG。RUOSHEJIHUOBIDUIHUAN,PayPalHAIYAODANDUSHOUQUHUOBIDUIHUANFEI。ERPayPalZISHENDEZHIFUCHENGBENFEILVJIBENZAI1%YIXIA,YIWEIZHEZHIFUJIAOYIDEMAOLIKONGJIANZHISHAOZAI2.4GEBAIFENDIANYISHANG,KOUCHUQITAYUNYINGCHENGBEN,RENGRANYOUJIAODADEYINGLIKONGJIAN。

CONGZHEIGEJIAODUKAN,PayPalGAOYINGLIBINGWUSHENMEMIMIWUQI,CHUNCUISHIDIJINGZHENGXIADEGAODINGJIASUOZHI。YIDANSHENDUSHEZUZHONGGUOSHICHANG,YIYANGHUIXIANRUYINGLINANKUNJING。FANGUOLAIJIANG,GUONEIZHIFUJIGOUZHENGXIANGZOUCHUQU,KANZHONGDEYESHIGUOJISHICHANGGENGGAODEMAOLIKONGJIAN。

PayPal入华,破局点在哪里?

PayPalSHIYIJIALIZUOUMEI、JIAOYIGUIMOZHONGDENG、YINGLINENGLIQIANG、GUOJIHUACHENGDUGAODEZHIFUJIGOU,RENXUWUHAI,GUONEIZHIFUJIGOUZHIYOUFALIHAIWAISHICAIHUISHIZHIWEIJINGZHENGDUISHOU。DANSUIZHEPayPalSHOUGOUGUOFUBAO70%DEGUQUAN,RENMENKAISHIGUANXIN,PayPalJINLAIHOUNENGWEIZHONGGUOZHIFUSHICHANGDAILAISHENMEGAIBIAN?

CONGYEWUZIZHIKAN,GUOFUBAOCHIYOUHULIANWANGZHIFU、YIDONGZHIFU、JIJINZHIFU、KUAJINGRENMINBIZHIFUYIJIYUFUFEIKAFAXINGYUSHOULIDENGZHIFUPAIZHAOHEYEWUXUKE,QUESHILESHOUDANPAIZHAO,YIWEIZHEPayPalHENNANZAIXIANXIASHICHANGYUGUONEIZHIFUJUTOUYIJIAOGAOXIA,ZHANCHANGRENGZAIXIANSHANG。

XIANSHANGZHIFU,HENDACHENGDUSHANGQUJUEYUXIANSHANGCHANGJING,ERGUONEIDADEXIANSHANGJIAOYICHANGJINGJIBENJUNYIBUJUZHIFUPAIZHAO,PayPalDETENGNUOKONGJIANFEICHANGYOUXIAN。

一则缺乏C端用户基础。国付宝没有C端基础,PayPal虽有2.67亿年度活跃用户,在中国市场却没什么积累。一个缺乏C端用户的支付机构,对交易场景方而言,只会额外增加消费者负担(新增绑卡及实名认证等环节),降低交易成功率,合作积极性自然不大。

二则大规模拓客空间不再。没有用户,可以营销获客。但看看中国中小支付机构的生存现状,就知道C端获客有多难、成本有多高。此外,PayPal面临的是C端用户和B端商户的双边获客问题,这两类客户均习惯了国内的补贴打法,习惯了高毛利的PayPal是否愿意走上补贴之路呢?即便做出这个艰难的决定,作为一家独立上市公司,是否有魄力在中国市场投入百亿资金来打赢这场战争呢?大概率是不可能的。

所以,放眼未来三五年,PayPal在国内市场的突破口只有一个:跨境支付。以此为突破口,积累C端用户、累计B端商户,三五年后视市场和政策变化再做打算。

SHUODAOKUAJINGZHIFU,PayPalHAISHIDIQISHIZUDE。

YIFANGMIAN,GUOJIHUASHIPayPalDECHAYIHUAYOUSHI。PayPalZHIFUPINGTAIBIANJIQUANQIU200DUOGEGUOJIAHEDIQU,ZHICHI100DUOZHONGHUOBIZHIFUHE56ZHONGHUOBITIXIANCAOZUO。

LINGYIFANGMIAN,KUAJINGMAOYIZHIFUYIZHISHIPayPalGUOJIHUABUJUDEZHONGYAOZHUASHOU。JINNIANLAI,KUAJINGMAOYIZHIFUYIZHIWEIPayPalWENDINGGONGXIANZHEYUE20%DEJIAOYILIANG。

PayPalDUIKUAJINGMAOYIZHIFUDEYIZHONG,GURANYOUKUAJINGZHIFUGAOFEILVDEKAOLV,GENGDUODIHAISHISHOUXIANYUPAIZHAOXIANZHI。ZHIFUSHUYUCHIPAIJINRONGYEWU,ERPayPalZAIHENDUOGUOJIAMEIYOUHUODEZHIFUPAIZHAO,WUFAJINXINGBENDIYONGHUJIANDEHUIKUANJIAOYI,ZHIHAOBAZHONGXINFANGZAIKUAJINGZHIFUSHANG,ZAIZHONGGUO、DONGNANYAHENANMEIZHOUDEDABUFENSHICHANG,PayPalDEZHONGXINJUNSHIKUAJINGZHIFU。

MOUZHONGYIYISHANG,OUMEISHICHANGYIWAIHEXINPAIZHAODEQUESHI,YESHIPayPalJIAOYIGUIMOGAODUYILAIMEIGUOHEOUZHOUSHICHANGDEYUANYIN。CONG2018NIANSHUJUKAN,PayPalDEJINGSHOURU,54%LAIZIMEIGUO,20%LAIZIOUMENG(BUHANYINGGUO),11%LAIZIYINGGUO,ERQITAJINLIANGBAIGEGUOJIAHEDIQUJINGONGXIANBUDAO15%DEJINGSHOURU。

CIWAI,ZHANGQIZAIKUAJINGZHIFUSHICHANGZHONGMOPAGUNDA,WAIHUIFENGXIANGUANLINENGLIYECHENGWEIPayPalCHAYIHUAJINGZHENGLIDEYIBUFEN。2015NIANZHIQIAN,PayPalZAICAIWUSHANGYIZHISHOUKUNYUHUILVFENGXIAN,RU2014NIANWAIHUIDUIMEIYUANSUNSHI2500WANMEIYUAN,2013NIANSUNSHI800WANMEIYUAN,ZHIHOUTONGGUODUITAOQIBAOZHIDENGFENGXIANDUICHONGGONGJUDELINGHUOYINGYONG,PayPalJUBEILEQIANGDADEHUILVFENGXIANGUANLINENGLI,HUIDUISUNSHIYIWUFAZAIDUIZHEIJIAGUOJIZHIFUJUTOUDAILAIWEIXIE。

WENTILAILE,JIRANXIANJIEDUANPayPalFALIZHONGDIANRENGRANSHIKUAJINGZHIFU,SHOUGOUGUOFUBAODEYIYIHEZAINI?ZUIDADEYIYIJIUSHIHUODELEGUONEIZHIFUPAIZHAO,KEYIBAKUAJINGZHIFUYONGHUZHUANHUAWEIZHONGGUOJINGNEIZHIFUYONGHU,JINGGUOSANWUNIANDEJILEI,DAJUFALIZHONGGUOJINGNEISHICHANGJIUYOULEDIQIHEJICHU。

PalPal之后还有PayPal

DUIRENHEYIJIAGUOJIHUABUJUDEJINRONGJIGOULAIJIANG,JINRUZHONGGUOSHICHANGDOUJUYOUZHANLVEZHONGYAOXING,QIAFENGZHONGGUOJINRONGSHICHANGJIADADUIWAIKAIFANGDESHIJIANCHUANGKOU,DUIPayPalLAIJIANG,CISHIBUJUZHONGGUOSHICHANGBUXUYAOGUODUODEKAOLV,WULUNJINRUZHONGGUOSHICHANGHOUQUDEZENYANGDECHENGJI,DOUSHIHOUHUA,JINLAIBENSHENJIUJUYOUZHANLVEYIYI。

DUIPayPalRUCI,DUIQITAGUOJIJUTOUYESHIRUCI。PayPalSHOUGOULEGUOFUBAO,QITAGUOJIJUTOUYEBUHUICUOSHIJIHUI。GUONEIYOUYIBAIDUOZHANGYIDONGZHIFUPAIZHAO,CHULETOUBUDEJIJIA,DUOSHUZHIFUJIGOURIZIGUODEJIANXIN,DAGAILVYEYUANYIBAKONGZHIQUANGONGSHOUXIANGRANG。

SUOYI,DUIYUGUONEIZHIFUSHICHANGERYAN,SUIRANPayPalRUHUABENSHENYINGXIANGYOUXIAN,DANPayPalZHISHIXIANXINGZHE,PayPalZHIHOUHAIYOUGENGDUODEPayPalMENYAOJINLAI。JINLAIDEJIGOUDUOLE,WULUNSHIGUONEISHICHANGJINGZHENGGUIZE,HAISHIGUONEIZHIFUJIGOUDEGUOJIHUABUJU,DOUYOULEXINDEXIANGXIANGKONGJIAN,ZHONGGUODISANFANGZHIFUSHICHANG,ZIHUIJIEKAIXINDEYIYE。

编 辑:章芳
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